Musings.

Musings

The world, the economy, the markets, and our lives are dynamic. Events can have a large or small impact on us. They can create excitement, cause fears, raise questions, and spark insight.

Listed here are our most spontaneous, timely, and succinct comments on wealth, life, and more.





  • May 28, 2010 - When I was in Boston last week at the CFA annual conferen

    When I was in Boston last week at the CFA annual conference, I had a wonderful opportunity to speak with Seth Klarman and Jason Zweig. In last week's Journal, Zweig's The Intelligent Investor column covered some of Klarman's public comments at the conference. Legendary Investor is More Worried Than Ever



  • May 27, 2010 - Thank goodness for the Chinese. They affirm their Euro h

    Thank goodness for the Chinese. They affirm their Euro holdings and the world buys equities.



  • May 27, 2010 - Correlations between emerging markets and developed marke

    Correlations between emerging markets and developed markets appears to be falling in the face of the Euro credit crunch. This makes as sound of an argument for international diversification as I have seen.



  • May 24, 2010 - Venerable Columbus business-to-business software company

    Venerable Columbus business-to-business software company Sterling Commerce has a new parent. AT&T sold Sterling to IBM reportedly for $1.4 billion. Columbus Business First Storyline Updates



  • May 21, 2010 - Financial Regulatory Reform is making progress through th

    Financial Regulatory Reform is making progress through the Senate. If markets increasingly exhibit volatility, look for Congress to press for another "reconciliation" process for the sake of expedience. Like most bills produced from congress of late, the bill does have a few positive effects but mostly it is another government power grab.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 7. Wednesday May 19.

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 7. Wednesday May 19. I am invited to lead meetings designed to assist membership in organizing and running private wealth advisory firms. Regrettably, I must decline in order to attend a prior commitment. US equity market continues to slide early then gains some footing as the conference closes midday ET.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 6. Tuesday May 18. W

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 6. Tuesday May 18. Watched with keen interest the body language and facial expressions of Harry Markopolous, CFA while we listened to Mary Schapiro, SEC chair, speak of the current and future role of the SEC and respond to questions from our audience. Harry generally nodded in agreement and even laughed twice. US equity market opens up but slides downward throughout day.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 5. Monday May 17. ha

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 5. Monday May 17. have incredibly interesting conversations with luminaries of the investment profession including Jeremy Grantham, Jason Zweig, Arnold Wood, Jeffrey Diermeier, John Bogle, and Seth Klarman. US equity market declines during day but recovers to close essentially unchanged.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 3. Saturday May 15.

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 3. Saturday May 15. Attend meetings with CFA Society leaders from 138 worldwide investment professional societies. Help facilitate meetings on strategic planning and development. Lead meeting with Society leaders from Midwestern US region. US equity market closed.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 2. Friday May 14. Ch

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 2. Friday May 14. Chair meeting of CFA Institute Presidents Council Representatives -- my 10 colleagues from around the globe -- and attend meetings with CFA Institute Board of Governors and leaders of 138 worldwide investment professional societies. US equity market opens down and stays low throughout day.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 1. Thursday May 13.

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 1. Thursday May 13. Arrive in Boston and meet with long-time friends and colleagues who now work for firms specializing in private equity, distressed debt, traditional US equity, and of course Harvard. US equity market declines modestly.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA annual conference disembarked to unleash attendees on

    CFA annual conference disembarked to unleash attendees on a selling spree. Worldwide, investment professionals returned home with the bearish consensus stowed in their luggage.



  • May 20, 2010 - CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 4. Sunday May 16. At

    CFA Annual Conference Journal. Part 4. Sunday May 16. Attend CFA Institute Board of Governors meeting and represent presidents council in delivering comments to Board. Meet with certain society leaders before transition to the annual conference proceedings. US equity market closed.



  • May 13, 2010 - Met with lead research analyst covering India for one of

    Met with lead research analyst covering India for one of the largest pension systems. There remains wonderful investment opportunities in that nation although risks are elevated for adjusting risk premiums. This weekend in Boston, I'll inquire further with the president of the CFA Society of India.



  • May 12, 2010 - Spoke with a friend in DC on the phone today. He brings

    Spoke with a friend in DC on the phone today. He brings an interesting perspective from the center of the regulatory landscape. Morgan Stanley is now under the microscope.



  • May 11, 2010 - Will the resignation of PM Brown really change the UK?

    Will the resignation of PM Brown really change the UK? Hopefully, David Cameron ushers in a new era of responsibility. Hawk100 is intolerant of excessive hope. We need responsibility.



  • May 10, 2010 - Note that volatility typically rises at market inflection

    Note that volatility typically rises at market inflection points. After a rising market for nearly 14 months, volatility now may be a sign of inflection. Hawk100 is poised to protect your wealth if markets fail here.



  • May 10, 2010 - Looking back at the 20 most volatile days of all time (si

    Looking back at the 20 most volatile days of all time (since S&P started tracking intraday high and low on the S&P500 in 1962), Thursday ranked #12 at 8.9%. 13 of the 20 most volatile days ever occurred between 29 Sep 2008 (TARP passed by Congress) and 1 Dec 2008. 4 of the 20 including the top 2 were in the days between 19--26 October 1987.



  • May 10, 2010 - Article 151

    Don't get too excited by the intraday changes in stocks of late. A quick review of IVW, the index ETF for Large US Growth stocks shows that even Thursday's price glitches were not unprecedented. Here are two previous trading days when volatility of the ETF greatly exceeded volatility of the index (Date, intraday high, intraday low, volatility range, index volatility range): 19SEP2008, 87.40, 45.03, 70.55%, 4.21% and 22JAN2008, 62.56, 48.82, 27.48%, 3.64% But nothing looks quite like Thursday: 06MAY2010, 59.65, 0.10, 101.92%, 8.88%



  • May 10, 2010 - Adding fuel to the fire. The EU agrees to pump 750 billi

    Adding fuel to the fire. The EU agrees to pump 750 billion euro to shore up sovereign debts of member nations. The financial strength of the continental union of member states has come under doubt from the weight of public pensions. Maybe the US should pay attention and avoid this track before we fall too far in line with this train wreck.



  • May 10, 2010 - Elena Kagan gets nod from Obama for Supreme Court Justice

    Elena Kagan gets nod from Obama for Supreme Court Justice. It will be interesting to see if this distracts the market's attention away from Greece and the Euro-zone collapse.



  • May 07, 2010 - ...and so closes the oddest week ever. The S&P 500 decli

    ...and so closes the oddest week ever. The S&P 500 declined 6.4% and the MSCI EAFE dropped 7.4%. Thank heaven for hedges, or just thank Hawk100.



  • May 07, 2010 - Hawk100 has recommended VIX for member portfolios to prot

    Hawk100 has recommended VIX for member portfolios to protect their wealth against uncertainty under conditions exactly as they are happening now. Stocks ... VIX Soars



  • May 06, 2010 - The market meltdown might be here. Hawk100 is watching c

    The market meltdown might be here. Hawk100 is watching closely, protecting your accounts proactively, and purchasing where prudent.



  • May 03, 2010 - Members of Hawk100: Rest assured, we protect your financ

    Members of Hawk100: Rest assured, we protect your financial information with a higher degree of sensitivity, confidentiality, privilege, and privacy than the Pentagon treats its nuclear arsenal. Why the Obama administration would disclose such records to the international community of allies and adversaries is beyond our understanding. US Reveals Size of Nuclear Arsenal (WSJ) US Says Nuclear Arsenal Includes 5113 Warheads (Reuters) Pentagon to Unveil Size of Nuclear Arsenal (Worldnews)



  • May 03, 2010 - For March 2010, personal income increased 0.3% and consum

    For March 2010, personal income increased 0.3% and consumer spending rose 0.6%. So much for more prudence in American consumerism. Over the year, income and spending rose 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively. Not much saving showing up here either.